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Superlongevity Without Overpopulation
experiencing a drastic reduction of population growth. This is
true despite major relative life extension the extra decades of
life bestowed by medical intervention and nutrition.
Taking a global perspective, the numbers reveal that the
average annual population growth rate peaked in 19651970
at 2.07 percent. Ever since then, the rate of increase has been
declining, coming down to 1.2 per cent annually. That means
the addition of 77 million people per year, based on an esti-
mated world population of 6.1 billion in mid-2000. [3]
A mere six countries account for fully half of this growth:
India for 21 percent; China for 12 percent; Pakistan for
5 percent; Nigeria for 4 percent; Bangladesh for 4 percent,
and Indonesia for 3 percent. China has markedly reduced the
average number of births per woman over the last 50 years
from six to 1.8. Starting from the same birth rate at that time,
India has fallen much less, although still almost halving the
rate to 3.23 percent. If these trends continue up to 2050,
Indias population will exceed that of China. [5]
Despite the fecundity of these top people-producers, the
overall picture is an encouraging one:
The total fertility rate for the world as a whole dropped
by nearly two-fifths between 1950/55 and 1990/95
from about 5 children per woman down to about 3.1
children per woman. Average fertility in the more devel-
oped regions fell from 2.8 to 1.7 children per woman,
well below biological replacement. Meanwhile total fer-
tility rates in less developed nations fell by 40 percent,
falling from 6.2 to 3.5 children per woman. [6]
We can expect population growth to continue slowing until
it reaches a stable size. What size will that be? No one knows
for sure, but the best UN numbers indicate that popula-
tion may peak at as low as 8 billion people, with a medium
projection of 9.3 billion and an upper limit projection of